[ABFM] Longterm state budget forecasts

[James D. Savage]

There is an interesting new study on forecasting titled "Fiscal
Forecasting:  Lessons for the Literature and Challenges."
European Central Bank Working Paper 843, Dec. 2007.
<http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp843.pdf>

Jim Savage
Professor of Politics
University of Virginia

--On Thursday, March 13, 2008 11:07 AM -0400 "Mikesell, John L." 
<mikesell at indiana.edu> wrote:

> Long term state budget forecasts were the rage some twenty-plus years
> ago.  I bet every state did at least one.  I think then people realized
> that the models were making some assumptions about specification
> stability that weren't particularly supportable by any evidence.  And
> they made assumptions about expenditure decisionmaking that just wasn't
> right -- legislatures make appropriations annually, they don't spend
> according to the econometric model or by formula.  When those realities
> hit, we moved back to much simpler approaches -- like those of the CBO.
> We know they aren't right but they don't confuse us with delusions of
> precision and accuracy.  The further into the future you want your model
> to "forecast," the simpler its structure should be.
>
> John Mikesell
> Professor of Public Finance and Policy Analysis
> Indiana University
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: abfm-bounces at aspaonline.org [mailto:abfm-bounces at aspaonline.org] On
> Behalf Of Beecher, Ines (OCA) Sent: Monday, March 10, 2008 11:28 AM
> To: David Merriman; ABFM_list
> Subject: Re: [ABFM] Longterm state budget forecasts
>
> When you do, please pass the information along-it would be so
> appreciated.
>
> When I saw the U.S. CBO model, I asked our Social and Economic
> Development Council to take a look at the long-term forecast model to
> see if we could utilize it, but I did not get a lot of enthusiasm from
> them.
>
> Thanks.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: abfm-bounces at aspaonline.org [mailto:abfm-bounces at aspaonline.org]
> On Behalf Of David Merriman
> Sent: Sunday, March 09, 2008 4:49 PM
> To: ABFM_list
> Subject: [ABFM] Longterm state budget forecasts
>
> Dear list:
> A group of in Illinois have been discussing the possibility of
> developing a model to generate long-term forecasts of the state budget.
> This would allow us to vary certain drivers (demographic and economic
> forecasts) and policies (taxing and spending policies) to generate
> changes in fiscal forecasts.  This would be some what similar to the
> models maintained by the US CBO and (we believe) some other
> organizations for the federal budget.
>
> Our question:
> Do you know of other examples of this sort of model being built at a
> subnational level in the US?  If so can you please let me know where to
> look and who to talk with.?
>
> Thanks for any help in this regard.
>
> --
> David Merriman
> Institute of Government and Public Affairs
> University of Illinois
> 815 W. Van Buren Street, Suite 525
> Chicago, IL 60607MC-191
> Phone: (312) 996-1381
> Fax: (312) 996-1404
>
> Graduate Program in Public Administration
> College of Urban Planning and Public Affairs
> University of Illinois at Chicago
> Room 138
> 412 S. Peoria Street
> Chicago, IL 60607MC-278
> Phone: (312) 355-2672
> Fax: (312) 996-8804
> Email  dmerrim at uic.edu
>
>
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**********************
James D. Savage
Professor & Executive Assistant
to the President of the University
for Federal Relations
Department of Politics
232 Cabell Hall
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA 22904-4787

Phone:  434-924-3750
Fax:    434-924-3359