[ABFM] Longterm state budget forecasts

[dave.davare at psba.org]

Professor Mikesell:

I concur with your comment on need  for the long-range forecasting model 
being simple.  As a person who was heavily involved 30+ years ago in 
forecasting in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) Pa.  I found that the key 
factor in the decision process was the elected officials desire for 
re-election.  All decisions, especially spending money, are based on this 
desire for re-election.  Thus,  the longest forecast should be limited to 
the next election for the current elected decision makers.  If the 
election results in a change of  the individuals that comprise the 
majority of the membership, then there is no historical base for 
projection.  I am reminded of a cartoon that appeared in a text on 
forecasting (time has erased the title and author from memory).  The 
cartoon was the Wizard of Id.  In this cartoon, the Wizard is reading the 
weather forecast for cold and snow from the paper, the wife inquires, 
"What is the long-range forecast?"  The Wizard responds - Spring!

In looking at the history of state spending for education in Pa, 
predictability is almost non-existant and purely politically motivated 
(Governor and Legislature).  What can be forecast are entitlement 
programs, but even here these forecasts are very limited because there is 
no way to predict the political motivation to expand, reduce or change the 
per unit value used to fund the programs.


David W. Davare, Ph.D.
Director of Research Services
Pennsylvania School Boards Association
Phone: (717) 506-2450 ext. 3372
Fax: (717) 506-2476

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